In a new Harvard CAPS-Harris poll, nearly two-thirds of Democrats say Tara Reade’s allegations won’t have an impact on how they vote.
The poll also confirms a trend other polls are suggesting – former Vice President Biden is taking a national lead. According to the poll, Democrats can breathe a sigh of relief, if only momentarily, as Biden leads Trump 53-47. Considering Biden is going through a difficult phase in his campaign and struggling to unite Democrats, this poll will relieve some tensions.
55% of the respondents in the poll say they believe the allegations Tara Reade made against Biden. Amongst the 45% who don’t believe in the allegations, 66% are Democrats. Republicans are more likely to believe Tara Reade than not, 78% confirmed as much.
Another Positive Poll for Democrats and Biden
A number of polls now are showing Biden taking a national lead. While the former vice president seemed a little frail in comparison to Trump in March, he is recovering ground now. A Biden campaign official recently claimed they’re ready to challenge in states like Arizona and Texas, both Republican strongholds.
Part of the reason Biden is doing well is Trump’s poor response to the pandemic. In March, Trump’s constant coverage in the media and Biden’s fall into the shadows made people forget about the presumptive Democratic nominee. As Trump’s failures to manage the pandemic become clearer and people realize the gravity of the crisis, Biden is again emerging.
It is not as if Democrats and Biden have done anything radically positive to perform well in this or another poll. Biden’s campaign may have brought together the moderates in the party, but progressives remain cold on the former vice president. Even though Sanders quickly endorsed Biden after dropping out, his base may not turn out for the presumptive Democratic candidate.
Trump Is Not in Unfamiliar Territory
Democrats should not read too much into any poll right now. Four years ago, Hillary Clinton led Trump by bigger margins and yet lost in November.
President Trump proved all the polls wrong in 2016. At the time, pollsters admitted Trump’s base was under-represented in their polling operations and models. Whether pollsters have made necessary changes to account for Trump’s base remains unclear.
The Trump campaign is not in a new place. Despite going through all kinds of scandals in 2016, Trump managed to overcome Clinton. While Biden is not as polarizing a candidate as Clinton was, he could still find it challenging to excite the Democratic base to turn up in November.
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